Research, strategy breakdowns, and lessons from building an automated prediction market trading system.
Polymarket pays cash every night to traders who keep its order books liquid. How the rewards program scores your orders, what it pays in practice, the risks nobody mentions, written from the operator's side.
Our live account's actual nightly payouts: $451.85 of gross rewards over 28 days on about $3,200 of capital, best night $75.93, plus the inventory costs that came off the top and the day we lost money.
We measured the top reward-farming wallets on-chain: nine accounts collected $742,677 in 30 days. How they quote, what separates them, and which parts of the playbook you can copy.
A transparent postmortem of our worst trading day. What went wrong, which risk controls failed, and the five changes we made to prevent it from happening again.
New to prediction markets? This step-by-step guide covers everything: how Polymarket works, how to read odds, placing your first trade, common mistakes, and strategies that actually work.
AI trading bots now account for a growing share of Polymarket volume. From LLM-powered market analysis to automated execution, here's how artificial intelligence is reshaping prediction markets.
Fresh wallets, big bets, niche markets. We analyzed thousands of trades to figure out what suspicious activity looks like on prediction markets:and whether you can profit from following it.
A detailed comparison of the two biggest prediction markets:fees, liquidity, market selection, regulation, and which platform is better for automated trading bots.
When two markets say contradictory things, someone is wrong. Here's how logical arbitrage works in practice, why it exists, and what makes it harder than it sounds.
NOAA publishes temperature forecasts that are right 85%+ of the time. Polymarket traders price weather events like coin flips. We decided to trade the gap.
Expected value, the Kelly criterion, and calibration:the three concepts that separate profitable prediction market traders from everyone else.
Tried-and-tested strategies ranked by difficulty, expected edge, and capital requirements. From simple news-reaction trades to AI-powered arbitrage systems.
Our Flash strategy uses live esports data feeds to detect score changes before Polymarket reacts. Here's how a 20-second scan cycle creates 5-20% edge on match markets.
Some Polymarket markets have a known outcome but haven't resolved yet. The price sits at $0.92 instead of $1.00. We capture the final spread automatically.
When a price spikes 20% in minutes, it's usually an overreaction. Our mean-reversion strategy detects volatility spikes and fades them back to fair value.
CME FedWatch prices rate decisions using institutional futures data. Polymarket prices them using retail sentiment. When they disagree, we trade the spread.