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    Strategy Deep Dive·7 min read

    The Resolution Timing Strategy: Profiting From Markets That Already Have an Answer

    Some Polymarket markets have a known outcome but haven't resolved yet. The price sits at $0.92 instead of $1.00. We capture the final spread automatically.

    Resolution Timing Strategy

    Finds markets where the outcome is already known but the price hasn't settled to $1.00. Buys the final spread for near-guaranteed returns.

    The Fed just announced they're holding rates steady. Every news outlet is reporting it. The Polymarket market "Will the Fed cut rates in March?" should be at $0.00 for YES (or $1.00 for NO). But it's not. NO is sitting at $0.93. There's a 7-cent spread between the current price and the guaranteed resolution price.

    That's free money. Almost.

    1Why markets don't immediately go to $1.00

    When a market's outcome becomes known, you'd expect the price to instantly snap to $1.00 (or $0.00). In practice, there's almost always a gap. Here's why:

    Resolution delay

    Markets don't resolve the instant an event happens. There's usually hours to days between the outcome being known and the market officially resolving. During this window, your capital is locked.

    Opportunity cost

    A 7% return over 3 days sounds great. But sophisticated traders have capital deployed elsewhere earning higher returns. They won't tie up $10K to earn $700 if that same $10K could earn more on a different trade.

    Resolution ambiguity

    Sometimes the outcome seems clear but the resolution criteria are specific. "Will X happen by March 1?" Did the announcement on February 28 at 11:59 PM count? The remaining spread reflects this small uncertainty.

    2How we detect resolution opportunities

    Our system continuously scans for markets where the price has moved above $0.90 but hasn't reached $0.98+. This suggests the outcome is highly likely (or already known) but there's still spread to capture.

    The LLM then reads the market description, checks whether the resolution criteria have been definitively met by cross-referencing news sources, and scores the confidence level. We only trade when confidence is above 95% and the remaining spread is at least 3%.

    $0.90+Price threshold
    95%+Confidence required
    3%+Minimum spread

    The sweet spot

    The best resolution timing trades are markets priced between $0.90 and $0.95 where the outcome is already confirmed by at least two independent news sources. The 5-10% spread captures capital lockup cost plus a small uncertainty premium, and when you're confident the outcome is known, that uncertainty premium is your profit.

    3The risk that isn't zero

    This strategy is the closest thing to "free money" in prediction markets, but it's not literally risk-free.

    The three edge cases that can burn you

    • Market voided: If the resolution source is disputed or unavailable, Polymarket can void the market. You get your money back, but you've lost the opportunity cost of having capital locked up.
    • Surprise reversal: Rare but it happens. A court ruling gets appealed and overturned. An election result gets challenged. The "known" outcome turns out to be preliminary.
    • Resolution criteria mismatch: You think the outcome is known, but the market's resolution criteria require a specific source or date that hasn't been confirmed yet.

    4Annualized returns are surprising

    A 5% return in 3 days doesn't sound that exciting. But annualized, that's over 600%. Even a conservative 3% over a week annualizes to 150%+. The strategy produces many small, high-probability wins that compound quickly.

    The key is volume. On any given day, there are usually 5-15 markets in the resolution timing sweet spot. By spreading capital across all of them, you smooth out the rare loss and maximize the compounding effect.

    10%+Avg edge per trade
    1-7 daysTypical hold time
    5-15Opportunities per day
    150%+Annualized (conservative)

    5Why most traders ignore this

    It's boring. That's the honest answer. Buying something at $0.93 and waiting 3 days for it to become $1.00 is not exciting trading. There are no 10x returns. No bragging rights. No dramatic chart moves.

    But it's consistent, it's low-risk, and it compounds. In a portfolio of prediction market strategies, resolution timing is the ballast: steady returns with almost no correlation to the riskier strategies. When our Flash or Sentinel strategies have a bad week, resolution timing keeps the overall portfolio positive.

    The boring strategies are often the most profitable ones. Resolution timing won't make you rich in a day, but it will make you rich in a year.

    Automated resolution timing

    ClydeScan scans every market for resolution timing opportunities, capturing the final spread automatically.